Positive tipping points
 Positive tipping points |
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Abubuwan da suka dace sune ƙofofi masu mahimmanci lokacin da karamin shiga tsakani zai iya haifar da manyan canje-canje masu kyau a cikin tsarin rikitarwa kamar al'umma, tattalin arziki, ko muhalli. Ba kamar mummunan yanayin yanayi ba, wanda zai iya haifar da sauye-sauye masu lahani, ana iya haifar da maki masu kyau da gangan don hanzarta canji zuwa jihohin da suka fi dacewa. Misali, za su iya ci gaba da sauyawa zuwa amfani da makamashi mai tsabta, tallafawa kare muhalli, ko ƙarfafa halayen zamantakewa masu lafiya.[1] Manufar tana karɓar karuwar kulawa a cikin yanayin aikin yanayi, kirkire-kirkire na fasaha, da sauye-sauyen al'umma saboda yiwuwar amfani da maki don magance ƙalubalen duniya.[2][3]
Abubuwan da suka dace suna faruwa lokacin da takamaiman canje-canje masu amfani suka fara karfafa kansu. Wannan yana nufin cewa da zarar canji ya fara, ya zama mai sauƙi da sauri don ƙarin canji ya faru. Misali, yayin da bangarorin Hasken rana suka zama masu rahusa mutane da yawa suna sayen su, wanda ke haifar da ƙananan farashi da kuma yawan mutane da ke amfani da hasken rana. Gwamnatoci da kungiyoyi na iya tallafawa yanayin da ya dace don abubuwan da suka dace da za su faru.[4]
Hanyoyin da ake amfani da su
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
Abubuwan da suka dace suna faruwa ne lokacin da tsoma baki, sau da yawa ƙananan dangi ga sikelin tsarin, suna karawa ta hanyar ƙarfafa abubuwan da aka ba da labari. Wadannan ra'ayoyin na iya haɗawa da ƙarfafawar Tattalin Arziki, Hanyoyin ilmantarwa na fasaha, tasirin cibiyar sadarwa, ko yaduwar zamantakewa, wanda ke haifar da saurin karɓar sabbin ayyuka ko fasahohi. Misali, saurin raguwa a farashin fasahar makamashi mai sabuntawa ya haifar da maki masu kyau a Kasuwancin makamashi, yana sa makamashi ya fi dacewa da gasa da hanzarta turawa.[5]
Ɗaya daga cikin maɓallin maɓallin mai kyau na iya haifar da wasu, yana haifar da tasirin canji mai kyau wanda aka sani da maɓallin tipping.[6] Har ila yau, akwai yiwuwar cewa kyakkyawan ba da kuɗi na iya haifar da mummunan sakamako ba tare da niyya ba, kuma akwai 'masu cin nasara' (ƙungiyoyin da ke amfana) da 'masu hasara' (ƙungiyar da ke ɗauke da farashi) na maki masu kyau.[7] Ba duk tsarin ba ne ke da maki ba.[5]
Bayani
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Abubuwan da suka dace suna motsawa ta hanyar ƙarfafa kai ('mai kyau') abubuwan da ke motsa canji. Don tallafawa kyakkyawan ma'anar ba da gudummawa, ya kamata a tallafa wa waɗannan ra'ayoyi masu kyau, yayin da ra'ayoyin 'marasa kyau' waɗanda ke kula da halin da ake ciki da jinkirin sauka za a iya rage su.[5]
Misali, madaidaiciyar ra'ayoyi kamar tattalin arzikin sikelin da ilmantarwa ta hanyar gogewa sun rage farashin PV na hasken rana da makamashin iska zuwa ƙasa da na kwal. A sakamakon haka, yawancin sabbin wutar lantarki da aka kara a duk duniya a cikin 2022 sun fito ne daga hanyoyin sabuntawa.[8][5] Misalan ra'ayoyi marasa kyau sun haɗa da daidaito na zamantakewa da halaye waɗanda ke sa ya zama da wahala ga mutane su karɓi salon rayuwa mai ɗorewa, da kuma shingen tattalin arziki don canzawa kamar tsada mai yawa da rushewar sarkar samarwa. [5][9][10]
Yanayin da ke ba da damar
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
Abubuwan da suka dace suna buƙatar shiri don ƙirƙirar yanayi mai kyau kafin ainihin tipping ya faru. Wannan shiri ya haɗa da raunana mummunan ra'ayoyin da ke kula da halin yanzu yayin da yake ƙarfafa ra'ayoyi masu kyau waɗanda zasu iya kara canjin da ake so. Da zarar an kafa waɗannan yanayin da ke ba da damar, ko da ƙaramin ƙarin canji ko shiga tsakani na iya haifar da hanyoyin ƙarfafa kai waɗanda ke fitar da tsarin zuwa sabon, mafi kyawun yanayi.[5] Misali, sauya ka'idojin zamantakewa kamar amfani da man fetur ya zama abin da ba a yarda da shi ba, ko sauye-sauyen manufofi da ke tallafawa saka hannun jari a cikin hanyoyin keke suna haifar da yanayin da ke ba da damar maki masu kyau.[11][12]
A aikace, mahimman bayanai masu kyau galibi ana motsa su ta hanyar hulɗa tsakanin fasaha, halayyar, siyasa, da tattalin arziki.[13]
Shirye-shiryen da za su iya amfani da su don haifar da saurin
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Ba kamar Abubuwan da ba su da kyau waɗanda galibi za a guje su ba, ana iya neman abubuwan da suka dace da gangan kuma a haifar da su don sakamako mai fa'ida. Abubuwan da ke haifar da su na iya zama ayyukan da aka tsara da gangan kamar su sababbin abubuwan zamantakewa, sababbin fasahohi, saka hannun jari ko shiga tsakani na manufofi, ko kuma suna iya zama abubuwan da suka faru, kamar bala'i na halitta.[5][14]
Aikace-aikace da misalai
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
Ma'anar mahimman bayanai masu kyau sun dace musamman a cikin manufofin yanayi da sauye-sauyen dorewa. Ta hanyar gano wuraren da za a iya amfani da su, kamar saka hannun jari na dabarun, canje-canje na ka'idoji, ko kamfen na jama'a, masu tsara manufofi da masu ruwa da tsaki na iya haifar da sauye-sauye masu dorewa zuwa tsarin low-carbon. Ana kuma lura da maki masu kyau a cikin tsarin zamantakewa, inda sauye-sauye a cikin ra'ayin jama'a ko halayyar za su iya raguwa da sauri da zarar an kai ga taro mai mahimmanci.[15]
Misali, ayyukan da aka yi niyya sun haifar da tattalin arziki na sikelin wanda yanzu ke motsa saurin karɓar makamashi mai sabuntawa a duk duniya, wanda ya kai ko ya wuce daidaitattun farashi tare da samar da wutar lantarki. Motocin lantarki sun bayyana sun kai matsayi mai kyau ga tallafin jama'a. Wannan yana motsawa ta hanyar dalilai kamar ƙananan farashin batir da karuwar ƙarfafawar gwamnati. EVs suna shirye su kama da sauri sama da 50% na kasuwar kasuwa a Turai da Asiya. [16] [5]
Ana iya ɗaukar sake gabatar da kyarketai masu launin toka a cikin Gidan shakatawa na Yellowstone a matsayin misali na haifar da kyakkyawan yanayin muhalli.[5] Kwararrun da ke cinyewa a kan elk, wanda ke cinye yanayin ƙasa, ya haifar da wani tsari na trophic, tsari na ƙarfafa kansa wanda ya inganta bambancin halittu kuma ya canza yanayin halittu na gida.[17]
Manazarta
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- ↑ Lenton, Timothy M. (2020-01-27). "Tipping positive change". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 375 (1794): 20190123. doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0123. PMC 7017777. PMID 31983337.
- ↑ Letz, M. A. Sabine; Mey, Franziska (22 October 2024). "Tipping Points as Indicators of Positive Change". www.rifs-potsdam.de (in Turanci). Research Institute for Sustainability. Retrieved 2025-06-05.
- ↑ Mey, Franziska; Mangalagiu, Diana; Lilliestam, Johan (2024-12-01). "Anticipating socio-technical tipping points". Global Environmental Change. 89: 102911. Bibcode:2024GEC....8902911M. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102911. ISSN 0959-3780.
- ↑ Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Smith, Steven R. (12 March 2025). "How to leverage positive tipping points for climate action". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 81 (2): 101–106. Bibcode:2025BuAtS..81b.101N. doi:10.1080/00963402.2025.2464437. ISSN 0096-3402.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 Empty citation (help) Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "university-of-exeter-2023" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ Lenton, Timothy M. (2020-01-27). "Tipping positive change". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 375 (1794): 20190123. doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0123. PMC 7017777. PMID 31983337.
- ↑ Pereira, Laura M.; Smith, Steven R.; Gifford, Lauren; Newell, Peter; Smith, Ben; Villasante, Sebastian; Achieng, Therezah; Castro, Azucena; Constantino, Sara M.; Ghadiali, Ashish; Vogel, Coleen; Zimm, Caroline (2023-07-11). "Risks, Ethics and Justice in the governance of positive tipping points". EGUsphere (in English): 1–27. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
- ↑ IEA (2022-12-06). "Renewables 2022 – Analysis". IEA (in Turanci). Retrieved 2025-05-30.
- ↑ Rosenbloom, Daniel; Meadowcroft, James; Cashore, Benjamin (2019-04-01). "Stability and climate policy? Harnessing insights on path dependence, policy feedback, and transition pathways". Energy Research & Social Science. 50: 168–178. Bibcode:2019ERSS...50..168R. doi:10.1016/j.erss.2018.12.009. ISSN 2214-6296.
- ↑ Constantino, Sara M.; Sparkman, Gregg; Kraft-Todd, Gordon T.; Bicchieri, Cristina; Centola, Damon; Shell-Duncan, Bettina; Vogt, Sonja; Weber, Elke U. (2022-10-01). "Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action". Psychological Science in the Public Interest (in Turanci). 23 (2): 50–97. doi:10.1177/15291006221105279. ISSN 1529-1006. PMID 36227765 Check
|pmid=value (help). - ↑ Green, Fergus (2018-09-01). "Anti-fossil fuel norms". Climatic Change (in Turanci). 150 (1): 103–116. Bibcode:2018ClCh..150..103G. doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2134-6. ISSN 1573-1480.
- ↑ Nyborg, Karine; Anderies, John M.; Dannenberg, Astrid; Lindahl, Therese; Schill, Caroline; Schlüter, Maja; Adger, W. Neil; Arrow, Kenneth J.; Barrett, Scott; Carpenter, Stephen; Chapin, F. Stuart; Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Daily, Gretchen; Ehrlich, Paul; Folke, Carl (2016-10-07). "Social norms as solutions". Science. 354 (6308): 42–43. Bibcode:2016Sci...354...42N. doi:10.1126/science.aaf8317. PMID 27846488.
- ↑ Geels, Frank W.; Ayoub, Martina (2023-08-01). "A socio-technical transition perspective on positive tipping points in climate change mitigation: Analysing seven interacting feedback loops in offshore wind and electric vehicles acceleration". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 193: 122639. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122639. ISSN 0040-1625.
- ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Benson, Scarlett; Smith, Talia; Ewer, Theodora; Lanel, Victor; Petykowski, Elizabeth; Powell, Thomas W. R.; Abrams, Jesse F.; Blomsma, Fenna; Sharpe, Simon (10 January 2022). "Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability". Global Sustainability (in Turanci). 5: e1. Bibcode:2022GlSus...5E...1L. doi:10.1017/sus.2021.30. ISSN 2059-4798.
- ↑ Empty citation (help)
- ↑ Sharpe, Simon; and Lenton, Timothy M. (2021-04-21). "Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope". Climate Policy. 21 (4): 421–433. Bibcode:2021CliPo..21..421S. doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1870097. ISSN 1469-3062.
- ↑ Ripple, William J.; Beschta, Robert L. (January 2012). "Trophic cascades in Yellowstone: The first 15 years after wolf reintroduction". Biological Conservation. 145 (1): 205–213. Bibcode:2012BCons.145..205R. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.11.005. ISSN 0006-3207.