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Manufar digiri 1.5

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Manufar digiri 1.5
Manufar yanayi
Rubutun '1.5 °' a Neustädter Elbufer a Dresden don bin manufa ta digiri 1.5 ta Jumma'a don Makomar (2022)

Manufar digiri 1.5 (wanda aka fi sani da iyakar digiri 1.5) shine burin yanayi na iyakance karuwar zafin jiki na duniya da mutum ya haifar da tasirin greenhouse zuwa 1.5 ° C a matsakaicin shekaru 20, wanda aka lissafa daga farkon Masana'antu zuwa shekara 2100.[1] Ana amfani da matsakaicin darajar shekarun 1850 zuwa 1900 a matsayin darajar masana'antu.[2] 

Tarihi

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A taron canjin yanayi na 21 na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a shekarar 2015 (COP 21), kusan dukkanin kasashe a duniya sun sanya hannu kan yarjejeniya a cikin Yarjejeniyar Paris, bisa ga abin da suke da niyyar yin kokari don cimma burin digiri 1.5. [3] Dangane da wani rahoto na musamman daga Kwamitin Gwamnati kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC), saduwa da burin digiri 1.5 zai zama mafi kyau fiye da idan kawai za'a iya cimma burin digiri biyu.[4][5] Koyaya, a cewar IPCC, ƙoƙarin da aka yi kafin 2023 don rage hayakin gas ba ya isa.[6] Ba tare da karuwar matakan nan take ba, duniya za ta iya dumi da kusan 3.2 ° C a cikin shekaru 70 masu zuwa, tare da mummunan sakamako ga mutane da muhalli.[7] 

Ƙungiyar Meteorological ta Duniya (WMO) ta yi hasashen cewa za a iya wuce matakin zafin jiki na digiri 1.5 a cikin akalla shekara guda tsakanin 2023 da 2027. [8] Dangane da haka, 2024 ita ce shekara ta farko ta kalandar sama da 1.5 ° C dangane da matakan da suka gabata. Wani binciken da aka buga a shekarar 2025 ya nuna cewa irin wannan shekara ta farko sama da 1.5 °C ya nuna cewa tabbas Duniya ta riga ta shiga cikin shekaru 20 da za ta kai iyakar Yarjejeniyar Paris - wato, shekaru 20 tare da matsakaicin dumama na 1.5 °C.[9] A cewar Shirin Muhalli na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (UNEP), al'ummomin duniya suna kan hanyar zuwa haɗarin dumamar duniya har zuwa 2.9 °C idan sun cika alkawuran Kare yanayi na yanzu, waɗanda ba su dogara da abubuwan da suka gabata ba.    

Samun damar

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A cikin binciken 2017, an kiyasta damar cimma burin digiri 1.5 a matsayin ƙasa. A wannan lokacin, an ɗauka cewa ko da ba tare da ƙarin hayakin gas ba, matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya zai ci gaba da tashi zuwa akalla 1.1 ° C idan aka kwatanta da lokutan da suka gabata, kuma tare da yiwuwar 13% har ma da 1.5 ° C ko fiye. Bincike na biyu daga wannan shekarar ya yi la'akari da cewa ba zai yiwu a iyakance dumamar duniya zuwa 2 ° C ta 2100, ba tare da 1.5 ° C ba. Dangane da samfuran a lokacin, wanda ya dogara da tsinkaya game da babban samfurin cikin gida ga kowane mutum da ci gaban yawan jama'a, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, an kiyasta yiwuwar cimma wannan burin a kashi ɗaya cikin dari.[10][11]    

Koyaya, rahoton na musamman na IPCC na digiri 1.5 na dumama duniya da aka buga a watan Oktoba ya kammala cewa har yanzu ana iya cimma burin digiri 1.5 . Don cimma wannan, hayakin CO="true" id="mwbw" typeof="mw:Transclusion">CO na mutum dole ne ya fara faduwa sosai kafin 2030 kuma ya kai ga hayakin hayaki daga kusan 2050.[12] Don rage hayakin iskar gas a cikin wannan ɗan gajeren lokaci, ana buƙatar sauyawa daga man fetur zuwa tushen makamashi mai sabuntawa da kuma abincin da ya fi dacewa da shuka.[13][14] A lokaci guda, ana buƙatar Cire carbon dioxide har zuwa tan biliyan 100 zuwa 1000 na CO2 har zuwa ƙarshen ƙarni, daidai da sau 2.5 zuwa 25 na fitar da CO2 na shekara-shekara na c. 40 gigatons. Ɗaya daga cikin zaɓuɓɓuka don cimma wannan ta hanyar halitta zai kasance ta hanyar matakan cire carbon dioxide (CDR) a cikin yanayin noma, gandun daji da sauran amfani da ƙasa (AFOLU) kamar gandun daji le maido da moorland, duk da haka a mafi yawan hanyoyin fitarwa na IPCC wannan an dauke shi bai isa ba. Bugu da ƙari, dole ne a yi amfani da kama carbon da adanawa don sanyaya Duniya bayan ya wuce manufa ta digiri 1.5. Majalisar yanayi ta duniya kanta ta ambaci cewa ba a tabbatar da cewa irin waɗannan ma'auni za su yi aiki a aikace-aikacen girma ba.

Ɗaya daga cikin hangen nesa da aka buga a cikin 2023 ya tabbatar da cewa burin digiri 1.5 zai rushe tsakanin 2033 da 2035 har ma a cikin yanayi masu kyau.[15] Wani rahoto daga wannan shekarar ya yi la'akari da bin burin digiri 1.5 da decarbonization zuwa 2050 a matsayin "ba mai yiwuwa ba".[16]

Ɗaya daga cikin binciken shari'a a kan Landan da aka buga a 2023 ya nuna cewa babbar gudummawa don cimma burin digiri 1.5 a manyan birane ya ƙunshi raguwa mai yawa a cikin sufuri mai zaman kansa. Masana kimiyya suna ba da shawarar haɗakar matakai a cikin nau'in raba motoci na makwabta, sake fasalin shimfidar titin bayan samfurin superblock, cikakkiyar wadataccen gida bisa ga samfurin birni, dakatar da manyan ayyukan gine-ginen hanya da kuma farashi mai ƙarfi don hanyoyin da ke da rikice-rikice masu yawa ko wuraren da ke da tasirin lafiya.[17]

Girman samar da gawayi, mai da iskar gas a duk duniya yana ci gaba da zarce adadin da ake buƙata don rage sauyin yanayi . Bisa ga rashin daidaituwa tsakanin CO watsi da ci gaban tattalin arziki, ma'auni mai mahimmanci don rage yawan karuwar tattalin arziki ana la'akari da shi a tsakiya ga bin matakan 1.5-digiri da 2-digiri. Bisa ga binciken da Jason Hickel ya yi alal misali, ci gaban da Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF) zai yi zai yi adawa da waɗannan manufofin. [18]

Ayyukan da aka yi kwanan nan sun nuna wucewa nasarar da aka yi niyya ta digiri 1.5 ta hanyar janyewar hayaki na CO2 daga Yanayin duniya (tsarin da ya wuce) an yi la'akari da shi a cikin binciken yanayi saboda tasirin da ba za a iya juyawa ba.[19] Dangane da binciken da The Guardian ta yi, kashi 5 cikin 100 ne kawai na masana kimiyyar yanayi da aka bincika a farkon 2024 suna tsammanin cimma burin digiri 1.5.

Fa'idodi idan aka kwatanta da burin digiri 2

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Wani rahoto na musamman da IPCC ta bayar a matsayin dumamar duniya na 1.5 °C ya yi tsakanin sauran abubuwan da ke tattare da maganganun tsakiya masu zuwa ga sakamakon dumamar duniya ta 1.5 °C idan aka kwatanta da ɗaya daga cikin 2 °C:

  1. Rage karuwa zuwa matsakaicin yanayin zafi, raƙuman zafi, fari, ruwan sama mai yawa da rashi na hazo.
  2. Za a rage hauhawar matakin teku da karin mita 0.1 ta hanyar bin manufa ta digiri 1.5 maimakon manufa ta biyu. Dangane da ƙididdigar yawan jama'a na 2010 kuma ba tare da wani gyare-gyare ba mutane miliyan 10 za su shafi hauhawar matakin teku fiye da 2 ° C na dumama. Tekuna za su tashi ba tare da la'akari ba, koda lokacin da suke bin manufa ta digiri 1.5, kodayake tare da ƙasa da sauri fiye da tare da dumama na 2 ° C.  
  3. Za a sami karancin lalacewar jinsuna, karancin lalacewa a kan yanayin halittu a ƙasa, a cikin ruwa mai laushi da gabar teku don a riƙe yawancin ayyukan yanayin halittu na dogon lokaci.
  4. Ƙananan karuwa a cikin dumama teku da ƙarancin ƙwayoyin cuta, tare da karamin raguwa a cikin matakan iskar oxygen na teku, da kuma rage asarar halittu da yawan zafi. Lokacin rani ba tare da kankara ta teku a cikin Arctic ba zai faru sau ɗaya a kowace ƙarni maimakon sau ɗaya a cikin shekaru goma.
  5. Za a sami ƙananan haɗari ga lafiyar ɗan adam da aminci, hanyoyin rayuwa, abinci da ruwa, da Ci gaban tattalin arziki.
  6. Ƙananan gyare-gyare ga sabon yanayi zai zama dole. Ana samun iyakokin ikon daidaitawa na wasu tsarin ɗan adam da na halitta tare da digiri 1.5 na dumamar duniya, amma asarar saboda wuce iyakokin sauyin yanayi zai zama karami fiye da digiri 2 na dumamar yanayi.

Hadarin haifar da maki a cikin tsarin yanayi na Duniya da kuma halayen sarkar da ba za a iya sarrafawa ba ya raguwa sosai a 1.5 ° C na dumama. Bayanan bayar da rahoto a cikin cryosphere, a cewar wani rukuni na masu bincike a cikin sharhin 2019, na iya zama kusa da haɗari. Tare da dumama na 1.5 °C zuwa 2 °C, kankara na Greenland ko kankara na Arctic na iya narkewa. Matsayin da ya fi dacewa da kankara na Yammacin Antarctic na iya riga ya wuce, amma dumama na 1.5 ° C zai rage tsarin narkewa da kashi goma idan aka kwatanta da 2 ° C na dumama na duniya, yana sauƙaƙa daidaitawa da matakin teku mai tasowa. Koyaya, kasafin kuɗin carbon na tan biliyan 500 don damar kashi 50 cikin 100 na isa ga burin digiri 1.5 na iya riga an yi amfani da shi.[20]     

Idan aka kwatanta da tsinkayen dumamar duniya na yanzu ta Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cimma burin digiri 1.5 na iya tilasta kashi 80 cikin dari na mutane su yi ƙaura saboda canjin yanayi, saboda ƙananan yankuna na Duniya za su zama marasa zama. A cewar CAN Turai, daidaita Turai tare da burin digiri 1.5 na iya adana euro tiriliyan daya nan da shekara ta 2030.[21]

Bincike a cikin yunkurin kare yanayi

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Saboda karancin amincewar IPCC da masu binciken yanayi [22] game da cimma burin, kungiyoyi daban-daban, kamar su Masanin Kimiyya Rebellion, suna jayayya cewa ya kamata a ayyana burin digiri 1.5 a siyasa ba zai yiwu ba. Shirye-shiryen dimokuradiyya kai tsaye, irin su Climate Restart, wanda ya fara raba gardama na tsaka-tsaki na yanayi na Berlin na 2023, ya jaddada cewa har yanzu dole ne a aiwatar da decarbonization a cikin kasashe masu masana'antu daidai da manufa ta 1.5 don rage haɗari.[23]

Masu fafutuka daga Extinction Rebellion sun nuna gazawar da ke gabatowa don saduwa da manufa. ("1,5 ° R.I.P.") (2022)

Masana kimiyya na siyasa Wim Carton da Andreas Malm (duka daga Jami'ar Lund) sun soki wakilan kimiyyar yanayi saboda sun dogara da kwaikwayon su akan cimma burin digiri 1.5 na dogon lokaci, yayin da suke dogaro da zato marasa tabbas waɗanda suka janye hankalinsu daga abubuwan da suka faru a duniya.

Amfani da shi azaman taken

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Kalmomin "1.5 digiri" ko "1.5 ° C" galibi ana amfani da su azaman taken ta masu gwagwarmaya, kamar su Jumma'a don Nan gaba tun watan Yulin 2022, tare da rubutun "Dukanmu don 1.5 ° C" a kan asphalt na Mönckebergstraße na Hamburg, [24] ko kuma a lokacin da aka mamaye Lützerath tun daga 2022 ("1.5 ° C yana nufin: Lützereth ya kasance!").

Manazarta

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  1. ↑ Manfred Kessler (2024-02-09). "Klima-Debatte: Streit um 1,5-Grad-Aussage von Copernicus". zdf.de. Retrieved 2024-02-09.
  2. ↑ "1,5°C globale Erwärmung, Fragen und Antworten" (PDF). Retrieved 2022-01-09.
  3. ↑ "Der internationale Klimavertrag - ohne die USA". br.de. 2019-11-05. Retrieved 2020-01-27.
  4. ↑ "Klimaübereinkommen von Paris". Schweizerischer Bundesrat. 2019-07-30. Retrieved 2020-01-27.
  5. ↑ "Übereinkommen von Paris" (PDF). Deutsches Umweltbundesamt. 2016-06-14. Retrieved 2020-01-27.
  6. ↑ https://www.bbc.com/hausa/news/story/2009/11/091123_nigeria_climate
  7. ↑ "IPCC-Synthesebericht macht Aktionsdruck für 1,5°C noch deutlicher" (in Jamusanci). Umweltbundesamt. 2023-03-21. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  8. ↑ World Meteorological Organization, ed. (May 2023). "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update" (PDF).
  9. ↑ Bevacqua, Emanuele; Carl-Friedrich, Schleussner; Zscheischler, Jakob (Feb 2025). "A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit". Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9.
  10. ↑ Marlene Weiß (2017-08-01). "Das 1,5-Grad-Ziel kann man vergessen". sueddeutsche.de. Retrieved 2019-12-31.
  11. ↑ Raftery, Adrian E.; Zimmer, Alec; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Startz, Richard; Liu, Peiran (2017-07-31). "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely". Nature Climate Change. 7 (9): 637–641. Bibcode:2017NatCC...7..637R. doi:10.1038/nclimate3352. PMC 6070153. PMID 30079118.
  12. ↑ "1,5 °C globale Erwärmung - Zusammenfassung für politische Entscheidungsträger" (PDF). de-ipcc.de. Deutsche IPCC-Koordinierungssstelle. Retrieved 2019-12-31.
  13. ↑ Joachim Müller-Jung (2019-08-08). "Bericht des Weltklimarats: Der Klimastachel im Fleisch". faz.net. Retrieved 2019-12-31.
  14. ↑ Annika Flatley (2016-04-01). "Studie: Vegane Ernährung könnte Klima und Menschenleben retten". utopia.de. Archived from the original on 2020-02-20. Retrieved 2020-01-09.
  15. ↑ Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Barnes, Elizabeth A. (2023). "Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 120 (6): e2207183120. Bibcode:2023PNAS..12007183D. doi:10.1073/pnas.2207183120. PMC 9963891 Check |pmc= value (help). PMID 36716375 Check |pmid= value (help).
  16. ↑ Engels, Anita; Marotzke, Jochem; Gresse, Eduardo; López-Rivera, Andrés; Pagnone, Anna; Wilkens, Jan (2023). "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes". Universität Hamburg. doi:10.25592/uhhfdm.11230.
  17. ↑ Winkler, L.; Pearce, D.; Nelson, J.; Babacan, O. (2023). "The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand". Nature Communications. 14 (1): 2357. Bibcode:2023NatCo..14.2357W. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37728-x. PMC 10125996 Check |pmc= value (help). PMID 37095105 Check |pmid= value (help).
  18. ↑ Slameršak, Aljoša; Kallis, Giorgos; o'Neill, Daniel W.; Hickel, Jason (2024). "Post-growth: A viable path to limiting global warming to 1.5°C". One Earth. 7: 44–58. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.004.
  19. ↑ Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Ganti, Gaurav; Lejeune, Quentin; Zhu, Biqing; Pfleiderer, Peter; Prütz, Ruben; Ciais, Philippe; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Fuss, Sabine; Gasser, Thomas; Gidden, Matthew J.; Kropf, Chahan M.; Lacroix, Fabrice; Lamboll, Robin; Martyr, Rosanne (2024). "Overconfidence in climate overshoot". Nature. 634 (8033): 366–373. Bibcode:2024Natur.634..366S. doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9. PMC 11464373 Check |pmc= value (help). PMID 39385053 Check |pmid= value (help).
  20. ↑ Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against. In: Nature. 27 November 2019, doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0 (Open Access).
  21. ↑ Paris einhalten heißt 1 Billion Euro sparen. In: Plattform Transformative Finanzpolitik. 23 January 2024, retrieved 31 January 2024 (in German).
  22. ↑ Jeff Tollefson: Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming. In: Nature. Band 599, Nr. 7883, 4 November 2021, ISSN 0028-0836, pg. 22–24, doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02990-w.
  23. ↑ Klimaneustart Berlin: Volksentscheid Berlin 2030 Klimaneutral. Retrieved 6 November 2022 (in German).
  24. ↑ Hamburger Abendblatt: Hamburger Innenstadt: 1,5-Grad-Schriftzug bleibt auf Mönckebergstraße. 15 July 2022, retrieved 25 November 2022 (in German).
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